If each of these locations is actually occupied, the solid is known as a perfect crystal.

Please read that instead. It looks like this random statistics thing.

So you came here. Why does a mathematical concept generate this strange enthusiasm in its students? What is the so-called Bayesian Revolution now sweeping through the sciences, which claims to subsume even the experimental method itself as a special case? What is the secret that the adherents of Bayes know?

What is the light that they have seen? Soon you will know. Soon you will be one of us. Bayesian reasoning is very counterintuitive. People do not employ Bayesian reasoning intuitively, find it very difficult to learn Bayesian reasoning when tutored, and rapidly forget Bayesian methods once the tutoring is over.

This holds equally true for novice students and highly trained professionals in a field. Bayesian reasoning is apparently one of those things which, like quantum mechanics or the Wason Selection Test, is inherently difficult for humans to grasp with our built-in mental faculties.

Or so they claim. Here you will find an attempt to offer an intuitive explanation of Bayesian reasoning - an excruciatingly gentle introduction that invokes all the human ways of grasping numbers, from natural frequencies to spatial visualization.

The intent is to convey, not abstract rules for manipulating numbers, but what the numbers mean, and why the rules are what they are and cannot possibly be anything else. When you are finished reading this page, you will see Bayesian problems in your dreams. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening.

What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer? What do you think the answer is? Is that a real number, or an urban legend based on an Internet poll?

Do you want to think about your answer again? This calculator has the usual precedence rules; multiplication before addition and so on.

If women in this age group undergo a routine screening, about what fraction of women with positive mammographies will actually have breast cancer? If 10, women in this age group undergo a routine screening, about what fraction of women with positive mammographies will actually have breast cancer?

The correct answer is 7. Out of 10, women, have breast cancer; 80 of those have positive mammographies. From the same 10, women, 9, will not have breast cancer and of those 9, women, will also get positive mammographies. Of those 1, women with positive mammographies, 80 will have cancer.

What distinguishes solids, liquids, and gases– the three major states of matter— from each other?Let us begin at the microscopic level, by reviewing what we know about gases, the simplest state in which matter can exist. A-B-C Summarize A form of review in which each student in a class is assigned a different letter of the alphabet and they must select a word starting with that letter that is related to the topic being studied. () The Concept of Temperature How random energy is transferred Consider the situation pictured above: A vibrating piston is retained by a spring at one end of a narrow cavity containing a single bouncing particle.

To put it another way, before the mammography screening, the 10, women can be divided into two groups: Summing these two groups gives a total of 10, patients, confirming that none have been lost in the math.

After the mammography, the women can be divided into four groups: As you can check, the sum of all four groups is still 10,Jun 06, · How to Draw Fashion Sketches. In this Article: Article Summary Starting Your Sketch Drawing a Croquis Drawing Clothes and Accessories Community Q&A In the fashion world, new designs are presented in the form of hand-drawn sketches before they’re actually cut and sewn.

A-B-C Summarize A form of review in which each student in a class is assigned a different letter of the alphabet and they must select a word starting with that letter that is related to the topic being studied. That's at least what we're going to try in these TED Dialogues, starting today.

And we couldn't have anyone with us who I'd be more excited to kick this off. () The Concept of Temperature How random energy is transferred Consider the situation pictured above: A vibrating piston is retained by a spring at one end of a narrow cavity containing a single bouncing particle.

We took a normal TCP socket, injected it with a mix of radioactive isotopes stolen from a secret Soviet atomic research project, bombarded it with era cosmic rays, and put it into the hands of a drug-addled comic book author with a badly-disguised fetish for bulging muscles clad in spandex.

That's at least what we're going to try in these TED Dialogues, starting today. And we couldn't have anyone with us who I'd be more excited to kick this off.

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Yudkowsky - Bayes' Theorem